Forecast for 14th February 2013
Spot USDJPY
The USDJPY eased back to 93.05/92.95 for our buying opportunity & we bottomed just below at 92.83. We are moving higher again as hoped but should run in to resistance at 93.90/94.05. Watch for a high for the day here but go with a break higher looking for the 94.46 highs to be tested. If we then break above 94.50 we should continue with the highs of 2010 at 94.80/94.99 likely to be tested. If this does not hold us back look for 95.29.
Support remains at 92.95/85 but below here risks further profit taking down to 92.20/05. We can use this as an opportunity to exit any shorts and buy i to longs with a stop below 91.80 as we look for a low to the correction here.
| Weekly 78.6% Fibonacci |
| Last Week?s high |
| Monthly 38.2% Fibonacci |
| Last Week?s Low |
| Weekly 61.8% Fibonacci |
| Monthly 23.6% Fibonacci |
Topix March contract
Topix did move back to 957/955 now to close the gap but fell further to 952.
Tough resistance again today at 2011 highs of 977/980. The short term charts are suggesting a retest of 956 support but a move below yesterday?s low of 952 could signal further losses to 948, possibly 942/940. This level should offer an excellent buying opportunity this week if we fall this far.
977/980 is obvious resistance. A break higher should then target 2010 highs of 999/1003.
| 2010 High |
| Last Week?s High |
| 2011 high |
| Last Week?s Low |
| 2 Year Trend Line |
| July 2011 High |
| 2012 High |
| 200 Week Moving Average |
FTSE China A50 Feb contract
FTSE China A50 faces 9132 resistance but if we push through the 200 week moving average at 9179/81, look for 9250/70 & possibly a retest of the highs of 9355/65 where we need to exit all longs and sell in to shorts expecting a high. Stops above 9400 as this is a major long term resistance.
Support down to 9020 but below here 9889/83 should be a buying opportunity. Stops needed below 8935.
| Weekly 61.8% Fibonacci |
| Last Week?s High |
| 200 Week Moving Average |
| Last week?s Low |
| 2012 High |
| 100 Week Moving Average |
Hang Seng CE Index Feb contract
Hang Seng China Enterprises Future hit our major target of 11579/550. As predicted, this is very strong support it did hold the downside. Watch for a low again here this week but be ready to go with a break below 11460 for 11298.
We could head back up to resistance at 11855/870 today. Above here we run in to 9 & 21 day moving averages at 11961/12001 which could cause problems but if we push higher we can close the gap at 12120.
| August 2011 High |
| Last Week?s High |
| July 2011 Weekly Low |
| January 2012 High |
| July 2011 Weekly Low |
| 2012 High |
| Weekly 61.8% Fibonacci |
| Last Week?s Low |
| 200 Week Moving Average |
Hang Seng Feb contract
Hang Seng Futures could start to recover now to resistance at 23242/298 & a push through here is possible for 23415/448 as the next target. This is coupled with the 9 & 21 day Moving Average at 23500 but if we manage a push higher we should close the gap to 23620/639 with a good chance of a high for the day here.
Recent lows in the 23116- 23081 band should offer good support today. A break of 23000 however targets 22873/22818 & good enough support to hold the downside today but if we start to break below the top of the gap & 55 day moving average at 22852, we will see 22741 then 22530 next. This level could mark the low for the week so not worth running shorts any further.
| 2010 High |
| 2011 High |
| Last Week?s High |
| June 2011 High |
| July 2011 High |
| Last Week?s Low |
| Weekly 78.6% Fibonacci |
| July/Aug 2011 high |
| November high |
| October high |
Kospi March contract
Kospi Future broke higher as expected through 260, to hit our target of 261.25/50. We now look for 263.35 resistance to be tested but we could stretch as far as 265.83/266.50. here it may be wise to exit any longs & try shorts looking for a top for this bounce.
Any pullback should find support from a trend line at 260.10/00. We expect buyers here so a possible low for the day but if we break lower look for 258.69/30.
| 2012 High |
| September High |
| October High |
| Last week?s high |
| 100 day Moving Average |
| 100 week Moving Average |
| November High |
| Daily 50% Fibonacci |
| 200 day Moving Average |
| Last week?s Low |
| Weekly 50% Fibonacci |
Nikkei March contract
Nikkei opened pretty much filled the gap at 11180 as we bottomed at 11190.
Resistance at recent highs of 11460/11510 may be tested again today. Any shorts here need a tight stop above 11550 for next target of 11700. A break higher should see 11770/810 then 12110/30 which should hold for now.
Below 11270/250 risks another test of 11190/180 and if we break below here today look for 11093 support.
| 2008 H1 Low |
| Last Week?s High |
| 2010 High |
| Monthly 38.2% Fibonacci |
| Last week?s Low |
| Jan-10 |
| 2011 High |
| 2009 High |
Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-signals/asia-technical-report/2013-02-13.html
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